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Messages - Iamgod

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1
USA - NBA date: 07/08/2020  hour: 19:00
119111
San Antonio Spurs Utah Jazz
Tip Tony Bradley 16 or more points
Odds Stake 13/4 1
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Hi, let's go with one for the Utah Jazz against San Antonio Spurs that will begin shortly. We return with center Tony Bradley, but this time we will try a point over for the Jazz pivot. The explanation is similar, for today Utah will only have 9 active players, since due to various annoyances or rest, neither Conley, Mitchell, Gobert, nor O'Neale will play today. This leaves them with several exteriors that count little and for what we are interested, only 2 pivots, Tony Bradley himself and Ed Davis who is not counting for Quin Snyder.
 
 Bradley is a young pivot who in his third season with the team, is finally seeing minutes on a regular basis, even if it is only the 10-15 that Gobert rests. This season it only happened 2 times of the 20 minutes, in those games that Gobert missed, Bradley was 14-9 against the Pelicans in 22 minutes and 8-11 against the Bucks in 23 minutes. If we go to other seasons, we have the last day of the RS of last year, the most similar example to today, in which most of the important players rested and in which Bradley, sharing minutes with another center like Udoh , did a 15-10 in 24 minutes.
 
 Faced with all the losses of the Jazz, anything that is not Bradley playing more than 30 minutes would surprise me a lot and with so many minutes he is a player capable of producing due to his size. His numbers in points, when Gobert was absent are good, he is also a player who fails very little, good in the offensive rebound, with very high percentages of field shots.
 
 Good luck!
...

2
USA - NBA date: 07/08/2020  hour: 19:00
119111
San Antonio Spurs Utah Jazz
Tip Tony Bradley 13 or more rebounds
Odds Stake 7/2 1
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Hi, let's go with one for the Utah Jazz against San Antonio Spurs that will begin shortly. We'll test a rebounding over from Jazz pivot Tony Bradley. For today Utah will only have 9 active players, since due to various annoyances or rest, neither Conley, Mitchell, Gobert, nor O'Neale will play today. This leaves them with several exteriors that count little and for what we are interested, only 2 pivots, Tony Bradley himself and Ed Davis who is not counting for Quin Snyder.
 
 Bradley is a young pivot who in his third season with the team, is finally seeing minutes on a regular basis, even if it is only the 10-15 that Gobert rests. This season it only happened 2 times of the 20 minutes, in those games that Gobert missed, Bradley was 14-9 against the Pelicans in 22 minutes and 8-11 against the Bucks in 23 minutes. If we go to other seasons, we have the last day of the RS of last year, the most similar example to today, in which most of the important players rested and in which Bradley, sharing minutes with another center like Udoh , did a 15-10 in 24 minutes.
 
 Faced with all the losses of the Jazz, anything that is not Bradley playing more than 30 minutes would surprise me a lot and with so many minutes he is a player capable of producing due to his size. Also, MPJ is coming off 15 rebounds against the Spurs
 
 Good luck!
...

3
USA - NBA date: 07/08/2020  hour: 03:00
11397
Houston Rockets LA Lakers
LOST
Tip Kyle Kuzma 22 or more points
Odds Stake 17/4 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Hi, let's go with one for the Rockets-Lakers that we'll have in an hour. We're going to look for Lakers wing Kyle Kuzma to score 22 or more points.
 
 For today's game we have several casualties in both teams, highlighting the Lakers. In Houston, Eric Gordon and Westbrook will not play, while in Los Angeles Caruso, Rondo and, above all, LeBron James. LeBron's discharge passes Kuzma as the team's theoretical second-scoring option.
 
 Kuzma has had a pretty bad season, last year he averaged 19 points per game, down just 12 this season. However, in games where LeBron dropped, Kuzma left us 16 points against Denver, 36 against OKC and 18 against Warriors, although the first and last were beatings and he didn't play much.
 
 Since the start of the bubble, Kuzma scored 16 against the Clippers and Raptors, 9 against Utah and 10 against OKC. With the first place already secured, the Lakers must try to make secondary players gain confidence in the face of PO and having a Kuzma would surely add a very interesting piece to them in PO, which they will surely need, so I think hpy will take a lot of shots.
 
 Good luck!
 
...

4
International - Europa League Final Stage date: 06/08/2020  hour: 21:00
10
Wolverhampton Wanderers Olympiacos
LOST
Tip Raúl Jiménez 5 or more shots
Odds Stake 3/1 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Hello, let's go with one for the second leg of the round of 16 of the Europa League that will face Wolverhampton against Olympiakos. We will look for the Mexican forward of the English, Raúl Jiménez, to make 5 or more shots.
 
 First of all, we are facing a very open tie after 1-1 in the first leg, but with a local advantage to which the tie gives the classification, so the Greeks have to press in search of a goal and the English look for cons with very fast band people like Adama Traoré or the Portuguese Podence.
 
 Raúl Jiménez is the team's top scorer with 20 league goals and EL. He averages 3.5 shots per game in this competition, numbers similar to his league averages. In the first leg he already fired the 5 shots that they ask us today.
 
 Good luck!
...

5
International - Europa League Final Stage date: 06/08/2020  hour: 18:55
10
Bayer Leverkusen Rangers
LOST
Tip Exequiel Palacios 3 or more shots
Odds Stake 15/4 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Hello, let's go with one for the second leg of the round of 16 of the Europa League that will face Bayer Leberkusen against Glasgow Rangers. We will look for the Argentine midfielder of the Germans, Exequiel Palacios, to make 3 or more shots.
 
 First of all, we are facing a very expensive tie for the locals due to the 1-3 that they brought from Scotland. Palacios signed this winter for the Germans from River for 22 million euros. In Argentina this season he averaged 2 shots per 90 minutes, but once he arrived in Germany he could only play 3 games: 90 minutes against Augsburg with 1 shot, 64 minutes against Leipzig with 4 shots and 23 minutes against Eintracht without shots.
 
 In the first leg, the center of the field consisted of Aránguiz and Demirbay who made 3 and 4 shots respectively for the 4 that made the rest of the starting eleven. Today Palacios will take the place of the German of Turkish origin and hoping this situation will be repeated, I am going with this over of shots for the Argentine.
 
 Good luck!
...

6
International - Europa League Final Stage date: 05/08/2020  hour: 21:00
21
Manchester United LASK
WON
Tip Peter Michorl 3 or more shots
Odds Stake 6/1 0.5
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Hi, let's go with one for United's return against LASK Linz. We will look for the Austrian midfielder Peter Michorl to make 3 or more shots. The first, we are facing a tie already resolved after the 0-5 of the first leg.
 
 Michorl is a player who finishes a lot for the position he has and is the second team with the most shots made in the Europa League this season averaging 2.2 shots. His numbers in this competition are as follows: he leaves us 4 shots against PSV and Sporting Lisbon, 3 shots against PSV, Sporting and in the first leg against United, 2 against AZ, 1 against Rosenborg and none against AZ and Rosenborg. In short, in 5 of the 9 matches played in the Europa League this season, it reached this line, included in the first leg of this tie.
 
 Good luck!
...

7
International - Europa League Final Stage date: 05/08/2020  hour: 18:55
30
FC Koebenhavn Istanbul Basaksehir
LOST
Tip Edin Visca will score at any time
Odds Stake 3/1 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, we are going with one for the Europa League that resumes today. We want Bosnian Istanbul Basaksehir player Edin Visca to score a goal in his match against FC Copenhagen. Today's game is the second leg round, in the first leg in Turkey, the locals won 1-0 with a goal, precisely, from Visca.
 
 The Bosnian is a player with a goal, he plays on the right wing in the MP zone of 4-2-3-1 that the Turks usually use. This season he is the team's top scorer with 13 goals in the league, tied with Demba Ba and with 6 goals in 9 Europa League matches. He is also the player with the most average shots of the entire team and something very important, he is in charge of shooting penalties.
 
 If you look at the right moment, from the return of football after the quarantine, Visca played 7 games, scoring in 5 of them. But if we go further back, in the last 17 games he scored 12 goals, including 4 in the last 3 Europa League games.
 
 In summary, I think the quota is very interesting given the Bosnian numbers. In MarathonBet it is also quota 4, in the others it is approximately quota 3.
 
 Good luck!
...

8
England - Championship Playoff date: 04/08/2020  hour: 20:45
00
Brentford Fulham
LOST
Tip Neeskens Kebano over 0.5 shots on target
Odds Stake 4/5 2
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, we are going with one for the final of the PO of promotion to the Premier League that will face Fulham and Brentford. We will look to the Congolese winger of Fulham, Neeskens Kebano, to shoot at least one shot on goal.
 
 Kebano has spent several seasons at Fulham, but this year between injuries and a certain lack of confidence he did not begin to count until the return of confinement. He averages 2.8 shots for 90 minutes and 1.3 shots on goal for 90 minutes, second best in the team in both sections, second only to Mitrovic. He comes on a streak, in the last 4 games played he managed to score in all of them, with 5 goals in total. Taking these circumstances into account, I think the odds offered by bet365 are interesting to try it out, for example, in WH we have the same pick at 1.30.
 
 Good luck!
...

9
USA - NBA date: 04/08/2020  hour: 03:00
108116
Utah Jazz LA Lakers
LOST
Tip Jordan Clarkson over 21.5 points
Odds Stake 3/1 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, we are going with one for the Lakers-Jazz that will close the NBA today. We're going to look for a long over-stitch for Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson. Specifically we will look for 22 points or more.
 
 The Jazz come to this restart with a very important loss, such as that of the Croatian Bogdanovic. They were a squad with a certain lack of talent and now with the loss of Bogdanovic they are very lame of references. In addition to Mitchell, Clarkson is the reference man and in the first two games he was the Jazz player with the most shots made. In the first game against the Pelicans he finished with 23 points, with a series of shots of 8 of 17 and 1 of 8 in triples. In the second game against the Thunder, he returned to be the one with the most shots with 17, although this time only scoring 4 with 11 points. Today they have a very complicated game against the Lakers, but surely they will return to shoot a lot and trusting in something more successful, I find the quota offered interesting.
 
 Good luck!
...

10
USA - NBA date: 03/08/2020  hour: 22:00
100111
Washington Wizards Indiana Pacers
LOST
Tip Myles Turner over 21.5 points
Odds Stake 19/4 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, let's go with an NBA for the game that will face the Pacers and the Wizards. We're going to look again for an over-point from Pacers pivot Myles Turner, hoping this time he won't have a foul problem.
 
 First of all, Sabonis is short again. Turner's numbers with and without Sabonis are very different, when they both play together, Turner averages just 11.2 points for 36 minutes, while when Turner is alone on court, without Sabonis, these numbers go up to 20.4 points for 36 minutes, it's that is, it doubles its production. For today, in addition to Sabonis and Lamb, it is likely that neither Brogdon, Oladipo, or Bitadze can play, although this is less important.
 
 The first is doubt due to a problem in the neck that he suffered in the last friendly and I doubt very much that they will force him against the worst team in the bubble. Oladipo on the other hand is not injured as such, in principle he was not going to play in this restart, but in the end he looked very good in training and decided to do it, even so they agreed with the franchise to take it easy and not play any back-to-back. back. The Pacers will play today against the Wizards and tomorrow against Orlando, so it is known that Oladipo will play only one day, and if nothing changes that day it will be tomorrow against an opponent, a priori, more complicated than today's Wizards. All this leaves Turner as the theoretical second referent of the team after TJ Warren.
 
 We only have one precedent this season of a Pacers game without Brogdon, Oladipo and Sabonis. It was against the Bulls and Myles Turner scored 27 points. He comes from making a bad game against the Sixers, scoring just 9 points and having a lot of trouble stopping Embiid that caused him to play very little due to fouls. But his rival today is the bubble's worst defense and inside he will face Thomas Bryant, a player who stands out more for his shot than for his back game.
 
 Good luck!
...

11
USA - NBA date: 02/08/2020  hour: 20:00
118110
Brooklyn Nets Washington Wizards
LOST
Tip Caris Levert 10 or more assists
Odds Stake 6/1 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Hi, let's go with one for the first game of today's NBA game in the Orlando bubble, the team that faces the two worst theoreticians of all those who are there, the Brooklyn Nets against the Washington Wizards, marked by the numerous casualties (Irving, Durant, Jordan, Dinwiddie, Beal, Wall, Bertans ...). We will test Levert 10 or more assists.
 
 It is a difficult bet, but given the circumstances of today, croe that has value. Levert is the base of this team, there is Chiozza, but the one who has the ball in his hands is him. He comes from giving 7 assists against the Magic, a team that stands out for its defense, quite the opposite of its rival today, the Wizards, very clearly the worst defense of all the teams that are in Orlando that comes from fitting 125 against the Suns.
 
 Our player averages 5 assists per game, but today's circumstances are very different.
 
 Good luck!
...

12
USA - NBA date: 02/08/2020  hour: 01:00
127121
Indiana Pacers Philadelphia 76ers
LOST
Tip Myles Turner over 12.5 points
Odds Stake 4/5 4
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, let's go with an NBA for the game that will face the Pacers and the Sixers. We're going to look for Pacers pivot Myles Turner's point over. The reason is simple, Sabonis is low. Turner's numbers with and without Sabonis are very different, when they both play together, Turner averages just 11.2 points for 36 minutes, while when Turner is alone on court, without Sabonis, these numbers go up to 20.4 points for 36 minutes, it's that is, it doubles its production. In addition, Brogdon (besides Lamb) will not play today either, so in theory everything should be one of the 3 with the most shots with Warren and Oladipo, the latter with a 28-minute restriction.
 
 It is true that the rival in theory is not the best, the Sixers are a very good team, although with great differences when they play at home or away, but Turner is the type of player who can harm Embiid playing on the outside the area and the loss of Sabonis is very important in its performance.
 
 Good luck!
...

13
England - FA Cup date: 01/08/2020  hour: 18:30
21
Arsenal Chelsea
LOST
Tip Granit Xhaka 65 or more passes
Odds Stake 14/5 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, we are going with a pick for the final of the FA Cup that will be played in a few moments by Chelsea and Arsenal. We are going to test one of passes for the Swiss half of Arsenal, Granit Xhaka, specifically we will test the 65 passes or more that pokerstars offers us.
 
 Xhaka averages 66.1 passes for 90 minutes, a tad higher than what we are asked. We are facing two teams that usually dominate the games, with Chelsea slightly above their average possession. Xhaka would have left us this year around 50% hits on this line, depending a lot on the result of the match, when Arsenal loses its numbers go up a lot. Against the big theorists (Pool, City, United, Chelsea and Tottenham) he would leave us 3 green and 3 red. Of these 6 games they lost 2 and in both Xhaka exceeded the line (82 against Liverpool and 90 against Tottenham). For today I consider Chelsea to be a favorite, so I can imagine a match in which Chelsea will go ahead and Arsenal need to come back, having more possession, which would be very useful for the pick.
 
 Good luck!
...

14
Italy - Serie A date: 29/07/2020  hour: 21:45
40
Fiorentina Bologna
LOST
Tip Danilo Larangeira 55 or more passes
Odds Stake 4/1 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Good, we are going with one for the penultimate day of Serie A, specifically for Fiorentina-Bologna, a duel that will face two teams already without aspirations and out of any fight beyond finishing 2-3 places above or below. We will test the option offered by Pokerstars for the Brazilian center-back of the visitors, Danilo Larangeira, 55 passes or more at quota 5.
 
 As for possession, Bologna is a team with a greater tendency to have the ball and to get the ball played by central, averaging 51.7% possession, eighth in the league. On the other hand, Fiore is a team that usually gives up a little more control of the game, with an average possession of 48.2%, being in the upper part of the league in terms of short passes allowed with 410 per average match. In all his games, there is always a central rival who stands out in the number of passes over his teammates, hence he wants to try Danilo.
 
 Danilo averages 45 passes on average, 10 fewer passes than they ask us for today. My feeling is that the Fiore comes better, with just 1 loss in the last 6 games, in contrast to Bologna's numbers in the last 6, in which he only got one victory. In relation to this, when seeing the favorite Fiore, I would not be surprised if they went ahead on the scoreboard and from there they backed down, letting the ball played to Bologna. In the first round match, Danilo left us 62 passes.
 
 Good luck!
...

15
Italy - Serie A date: 28/07/2020  hour: 19:30
12
Parma Calcio 1913 Atalanta
LOST
Tip Matteo Darmian will give 45 passes or more
Odds Stake 23/10 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Hi, let's go with one for the Parma-Atalanta of the penultimate round of Serie A. We will test the Matteo Darmian 45 passes or more.
 
 We are facing two teams that no longer play anything beyond improving their qualifying position. Parma comes in 11th position with 46 points and no longer has options to qualify for Europe, nor to descend although it has 8th position to 2 points. On the other hand, the visitors come third in the table with 75 points and no options to fight for the league, only playing with Inter and Lazio who is in second, third and fourth position. Regarding possession, we have Parma as one of the teams with the lowest possession on average, 45.2%, 18th in the league, against an Atalanta that averages 55.5%, Serie A quarters.
 
 What I Like this pick is how the Atalanta press, they usually play with two forwards who continually put pressure on the centrals, always leaving the wings free. Normally, the players who pass the most in a team are the centrals and midfielders, on the other hand, if we look at the position of the players who pass the most against Atalanta (I choose the last 12 Serie A matches against teams with a defense of 4 , like Parma today), we see that the wingers would occupy:
 
 vs Juventus, 1st and 3rd in the first round and 2nd and 3rd in the second round;
 vs Bologna 2nd and 6th in the first round and 1st and 2nd a few days ago;
 vs Milan 3rd and 5th on the first lap and 5th and 6th on the last day, curiously they are the only team with bad numbers;
 vs Parma (today's rival) 1st and 6th;
 vs Roma 1st and 2nd;
 vs Lecce 3rd and 5th;
 vs Napoli 2nd and 4th;
 vs Sampdoria 1st and 6th;
 vs Brescia 1st and 4th.
 
 In summary, we see that of those 12 games, in 6 of them a winger was the most passes, and in 11 of those 12 there was a winger, at least, among the 3 with the most passes.
 
 Parma's right wingers average more passes than the left (44 and 40 for 38 and 33), so we will try Darmian, who will play right back today. The Italian averages 40 passes for 90 minutes, somewhat below what they ask us, however his numbers rise when he plays against teams from above, his second best game was against Lazio with 57 passes (41 in the second round), in the first round against Atalanta left us 53 passes, against Juventus 51, against Inter 44, against Milan 40 and against Roma 41. Of his 13 games with the most passes, 7 were against teams in the top 6 of the league and coincidentally of these 13 , Parma only won 1 for 10 lost. This seems to indicate that although Parma is one of the teams with the least possession, when they are losing Darmian plays a lot of the ball.
 
 Summarizing, taking into account that Darmian already left us 53 passes in the first round against Atalanta, those of Bergamo do not press the wings and that when Parma loses, something normal today, Darmian's numbers in passes They go up a lot, I see a lot of value in this line that Pokerstars offers us.
 
 Good luck!
...

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