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Messages - tlop

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1
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - April 10th, 2020
« on: April 07, 2020, 07:16:08 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 10/04/2020  hour: 20:30
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Carlsen wins the tournament
Odds Stake 1/1 5
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Magnus can win his own tournament (Magnus Carlsen Invitational), this is an online tournament with the largest prize pool for this type of tournament, $ 250,000. Its maximum rivals are Caruana, Liren or Vachier. The truth is that the tournament will have the best of the chess world.
 
 Carlsen is a real chess machine, and online and blitz is crazy. He had been waiting a few days to hang it but he was busy. I have just seen the semis of the Banter Cup (Dicharachera Cup in Spanish) against Sjugirov, player of almost 2700 (although in blitz it does not reach 2500) and I have seen him meridian.
 
 The tournament will start on April 18, will last two weeks and will feature eight of the best players on the planet, all the games will be shown on Chess24. It will be played at faster rates than usual in live tournaments. They will be 15 + 10 games, that is, 15 minutes per player for the entire game plus 10 seconds of increase per move.
 
 Anyone who does not know him very much can watch his games online in the commented Banter Cup, the Speedchess of years ago (he promotes the competition today) or usually plays tournaments in Lichess on Thursdays. It is true that all are at a faster pace than what is going to be played here but I do not see anyone surpassing it and more with what was seen in the Candidates tournament.
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2
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 26th, 2020
« on: March 25, 2020, 07:50:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 26/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
CANCELLED
Tip e4 is the first move
Odds Stake 16/11 1
CANCELLED
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Game between Caruana and Vachier. The bet is not easy since it is a bit of a coin.
 
 You can't upload it yesterday, it was at 2.70, in your game against Wang Hao and it came out. I am going to try to get him out again as he has not been too bad against the Chinese, it may be that the change of ladies as soon as it has taken away some offensive potential but in general there has been no problem although he could not win.
 
 Looking back, we see that last year Caruana played classic with White 3 times and on 3 he came out with e4, on 3 he played a Sicilian (on 2 occasions the Najdorf and on another the open one)
 
 TENÉIS A BET ON THE FINAL WINNER ON DAY 4, I SAY IT IN CASE YOU WANT TO TAKE A LOOK AT IT BEFORE THE FEE VARY.
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3
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - April 4th, 2020
« on: March 25, 2020, 06:46:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 04/04/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
Tip Nepo wins the candidate tournament
Odds Stake 5/2 1
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

We are in the middle of the tournament and we can already draw some conclusions seeing the game of each one. FIDE has already said that it will be played so there is no fear of cancellation.
 
 The bet is for Nepo to win the tournament, he just lost to Vachier today but I think he is the favorite. Both Bet and Marathon pay less than 3 and at that price it is difficult for me to enter.
 
 The favorites are Nepo and Vachier and on a third rung is Caruana (all this is in my opinion). The others including Liren, I consider impossible because although they can improve, it seems very strange that they can surpass these 3.
 
 I think that seeing what they have left for each one, the Russian is the player with the most options since it is his turn to play with white 4 of his 7 games and 2 of them are against the two maximum rivals (Caruana and Vachier) apart from his game against Alekseenko.
 
 Personally I would like Vachier to win since Liren is lazy but if I have to put money it seems more coherent to play with the boy in the bow tie.
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4
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 25th, 2020
« on: March 24, 2020, 10:32:04 AM »
International - Ajedrez date: 25/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Liren-Alekseenko tables
Odds Stake 18/19 1
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Seventh round of the candidate tournament after the break today. At the moment it continues celebrating despite the criticism of several players, where especially those of Grishchuk have been harsh.
 
 GM Liren started as one of the favorites to take the tournament and be able to challenge Carlsen but it has diluted like a sugar bowl. I don't know if it's the coranavirus or something else but he's not playing well, the only decent thing was his victory against Caruana in the second round. In the previous round against Nepo, despite losing, he had a move to achieve a draw with 31 Qf5 instead of Qg4 and then had 33 Rb6.
 
 Russian was not expected much and is already last with 2 points on 6. This does not mean that he is playing badly, from my point of view quite the opposite. He is showing much harder than expected although his attack is null.
 
 This bet is put on day 1 and I go with everything in favor of Liren but after 6 rounds watching the game of both I think the tables is a good idea. The Chinese has to press with White against the weaker opponent but if Alekseenko is able to hold in the middle of the game the tables will be close.
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5
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 21st, 2020
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:48:04 AM »
International - Ajedrez date: 21/03/2020  hour: 12:30
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Less than 46.5 movements
Odds Stake 27/17 1
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The game is Wang Hao-Alekseenko.
 
 The Russian is the weakest player of all and his rivals know that it is his best chance to achieve victory, to the point that they tend to play more offensive than usual.
 
 The Russian has tried to finish the games as soon as possible with some tables (41, 34 and 40 movements) with 2 tables and 1 loss against Caruana, all far from the 47 movements that would make us lose.
 
 Poor argumentation but I have little time, it is only with the intention of helping.
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6
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 21st, 2020
« on: March 21, 2020, 10:44:04 AM »
International - Ajedrez date: 21/03/2020  hour: 12:30
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip There will be two ladies on the board after the game ends .
Odds Stake 5/1 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The game is at 12 no at 12:30 but I would not let me write it, I hope someone can take it. I'm going to go very fast, sorry for the argument.
 
 By the way, the game is Wang Hao-Alekseenko. The Russian is the weakest player of all, and his rivals know that this is his best chance for victory, so much so that they tend to play more offensively than usual. Hence the need to keep the queen on the line.
 
 The 3 games of the Russian have ended with the two ladies in play and trying to finish the games as soon as possible with some tables (41, 34 and 40 moves) with 2 tables and 1 loss against Caruana.
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7
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 19th, 2020
« on: March 18, 2020, 07:58:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 19/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip More than 45.5 movements
Odds Stake 4/5 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Game between Giri and Vachier-Lagrave.
 
 If they don't go crazy I think I will go to the movement over in all the Dutch games. He is missing something in attack but he is undoubtedly the one with the best theoretical preparation, this shows in his games.
 
 He is a pretty rocky player and his is the middle game where the rival has problems to get advantages. If people want to win, they have to wait for the finals where the player loses in the positions where you have to risk.
 
 The Frenchman is motivated after his victory against Liren and will try not to detach himself much from Nepo and Caruana and try to jump the bench by winning this tournament.
 
 Regarding the numbers, Giri's games have been the most played on both days with 73 and 61 movements.
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8
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 19th, 2020
« on: March 18, 2020, 07:44:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 19/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
VOID
Tip Bet without tie: Nepomniachtchi, Ian
Odds Stake 7/11 2
VOID
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Nepo's game against Alekseenko, the Cinderella of the tournament. If it is tables they return the money and so happy. The truth is that I do not think that the wild card can achieve a victory in this tournament and the most it aspires to is to achieve a draw. With Liren's poor condition, some boards taste like glory and may not end last.
 
 Very good Nepo game in the first round where he passed over Giri, especially in the final. The Dutch believed that his most bishop tower could with the queen of Nepo. In the end it prevailed in 73 movements.
 
 And his rival, Alekseenko, scratched some tables in the first round against a Grischuk who is having a lot of problems over time. Today things have changed and Caruana has painted his face and the 150 ELO points between the two have been reflected.
 
 Most likely, they will be draws, but if someone wins, it will be the Azeri. His victory is 3.75, he will drop something tbn.
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9
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 18th, 2020
« on: March 17, 2020, 05:52:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 18/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime or Ding, Liren
Odds Stake 68/29 0.5
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Game between the French GM against the Chinese GM, where we are going to look for one of the players to win.
 
 Vachier has been quite solid against Caruana today and Liren, despite the defeat, has played well. His problem came from a serious error on move 30 with the f4 pawn, which meant that he lost all the advantage he had then. 10 plays later, he said goodbye to his draw possibilities after 40. Rdd2 accompanied by the loss of H.'s pawn.
 
 In short, I do not think they have played badly either. The results of the first day oblige, especially Liren, to look for something more than the tables and this tournament, unlike the rest, only has a prize for the 1st place since it is the one that can challenge Carlsen.
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10
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 18th, 2020
« on: March 17, 2020, 05:20:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 18/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip More than 42.5 movements
Odds Stake 9/8 1
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The bet is on the game between Hao and Giri. The second day of the tournament arrives and both players are day and night, the Chinese beat his compatriot giving the surprise and Giri showed a bad image against Nepo.
 
 After the first day we have seen that all the games have reached the cut of the first 40 plays for which they have 100 minutes and thus obtain another 50 minutes. Unless there is a very serious error, it seems strange to see a game that does not reach 40 movements.
 
 In Hao's game he has reached 45 moves and Giri's despite going one point below since move 15 has endured 60 more plays and has not been able to achieve even the tables.
 
 In direct duels there is little that Hao has returned this year to the elite after dedicating himself to teaching the sport for years. They are all games from 2013 and the only one nearby was a quick one in 2018.
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11
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 17th, 2020
« on: March 10, 2020, 03:36:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip There are no 3 tables in the first round
Odds Stake 3/1 0.5
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The super tournament begins for being the challenger of Magnus Carlsen to the world title with the best in the world and where chess lovers will enjoy a lot.
 
 The tournament comes with some controversy over the participation of Vachier-Lagrave, he was not classified despite one of the best players in the world. Teimour Radjabov resigned on the issue of coranavirus and Hao's non-quarantine. His replacement is French, it is said that Mr. Maxime has given him an extra little money so that his fear for the virus will increase.
 
 Difficult but not impossible. There are 2 games in which the victory can fall from one side such as Liren and Grishchuk. The normal thing will be to see the games finish in tables but hopefully the players come forward and show us show. In 2018, it started well with 3 wins and 1 tables, unlike 2016 where only Karjakin won over Caruana.
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12
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 17th, 2020
« on: March 10, 2020, 03:28:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Caruana loses 1 game .
Odds Stake 11/13 1
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The super tournament begins for being the challenger of Magnus Carlsen to the world title with the best in the world and where chess lovers will enjoy a lot.
 
 The tournament comes with some controversy over the participation of Vachier-Lagrave, he was not classified despite one of the best players in the world. Teimour Radjabov resigned on the issue of coranavirus and Hao's non-quarantine. His replacement is French, it is said that Mr. Maxime has given him an extra little money so that his fear for the virus will increase.
 
 Caruana was the challenger for the Carlsen title in 2018 and this year starts as a favorite. It has strong rivals such as Liren, Vachier or Nepomniachtchi. He really has at least one defeat against all the rivals by removing the weakest 2. The truth is that even the Chinese has taken the measure with 4 tables and 5 losses.
 
 In 2018 the player lost to Sergey Karjakin.
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13
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 17th, 2020
« on: March 10, 2020, 03:20:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
Tip Caruana wins 4 games or more .
Odds Stake 3/4 1
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The super tournament begins for being the challenger of Magnus Carlsen to the world title with the best in the world and where chess lovers will enjoy a lot.
 
 The tournament comes with some controversy over the participation of Vachier-Lagrave, he was not classified despite one of the best players in the world. Teimour Radjabov resigned on the issue of coranavirus and Hao's non-quarantine. His replacement is French, it is said that Mr. Maxime has given him an extra little money so that his fear for the virus will increase.
 
 Caruana was the challenger for the Carlsen title in 2018 and this year starts as a favorite. He has 4 games to throw to achieve those 4 victories, the 2 against Alekseenko (wild card) and Wang Hao, the two weakest rivals. Apart from any more that falls before the other rivals.
 
 In 2018 in a tournament with much more level than this he won 4 victories (Wesley So, Vladimir Kramnik, Levon Aronian and Alexander Grischuk) Curiously all with blacks.
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14
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - March 17th, 2020
« on: March 10, 2020, 02:52:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/03/2020  hour: 12:00
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Win Ding Liren
Odds Stake 31/10 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

The super tournament begins for being the challenger of Magnus Carlsen to the world title with the best in the world and where chess lovers will enjoy a lot.
 
 The tournament comes with some controversy over the participation of Vachier-Lagrave, he was not classified despite one of the best players in the world. Teimour Radjabov resigned on the issue of coranavirus and Hao's non-quarantine. His replacement is French, it is said that Mr. Maxime has given him an extra little money so that his fear for the virus will increase.
 
 Departure between the Chinese GM Ding Liren and Wang Hao.
 
 Ding Liren along with Caruana are the favorites to take this tournament, the American because it is the best at the classical pace of all those who are here, and the Chinese for the good season.
 
 The history of clashes (Liren with white) is 4-4-1.
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15
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - November 15th, 2019
« on: November 15, 2019, 01:22:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 15/11/2019  hour: 15:00
VS
individual individual
VOID
Tip Bet without a draw: Rapport, Richard
Odds Stake 22/15 0.5
VOID
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

This time it is a game of the European Club Cup that is being played in Ulcinj (Montenegro) and ends tomorrow. We will go against the American nationalized Cuban despite having him in high esteem.
 
 The Hungarian comes in a beastly way with several victories, especially in rapid and blitz mode (victories against Caruana or Leinier himself), in this case he plays 15 minutes. If it were a classic rhythm, the balance would be very much in favor of the Cuban.
 
 As for the ELO we have 2755 by 2727 in rapid and 2715 by 2759 in blitz. We see that when time decreases the Hungarian GM improves its performance compared to its rival.
 
 In the middle of August the faces were seen and Rapport won after 55 plays. In total this year they have faced 5 times with 3 tables, 1 victory for Leinier and another for Rapport.
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