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Messages - tlop

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1
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 30th, 2019
« on: June 30, 2019, 11:16:05 AM »
International - Ajedrez date: 30/06/2019  hour: 16:30
VS
individual individual
Tip Win Vachier-Lagrave Handicap 0 .
Odds Stake 14/11 2.5
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Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Departure between GM Anand and GM Vachier-Lagrave.
 
 Discrete tournament of both players as in the Altibox Norway and the logical thing is that the game ends in a draw. And even though the Indian will play with white which gives a small advantage, it seems to me that the odds do not reflect the level of each one.
 
 In the commented tournament of Norway, the game with a classic rhythm ended in a draw and in Armageddon the Indian took the extra point to achieve the draw. The history of games at this pace and these colors is 1 victory for the French, 3 tables and 2 victories of the Indian.
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2
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 9th, 2019
« on: June 09, 2019, 12:36:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 09/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
VOID
Tip Combined chess .
Odds Stake 12/5 1
VOID
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

I will mark it as null unless it is red or full green, which seems difficult but not impossible. The bet consists of wins Mamedyarov handicap 0 + Win So handicap 0 + wins Carlsen handicap 0, I see it difficult to lose any of them.
 
 1st game (Mamedyarov - Grishchuk), the Russian is fatal with 2 defeats in a row against Yu and Carlsen, he has only 1 point out of 8 possible. Mamedyarov comes to give the face in its game of yesterday against the Norwegian although losing in Armagedón.
 
 2nd game (So - Anand), the Indian is another who is not very well despite his victory yesterday, the Chinese on the other hand has the best to pressure Carlsen for the title since he is 1 point and with the duel that has against Vachier will try to press.
 
 3rd game (Vachier-Lagrave - Carlsen), this game reeks of revenge since the Frenchman has taken the number 1 in blitz to the Norwegian on his land. Vachier is not well in these slower rhythms and maybe the pressure to improve in the table makes him make some mistake that Mr. Magnus Almendrado Carlsen can take advantage of.
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3
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 9th, 2019
« on: June 09, 2019, 12:20:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 09/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
VOID
Tip Win Aronian Handicap 0
Odds Stake 34/13 1.5
VOID
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Round number 5 of the Altibox Norway Chess and it seems that every time the thing is more decided in favor of the Norwegian, even so there is still excitement in these 5 remaining games.
 
 As you can see throughout the tournament, the most common is that the games end in a draw but you still have to try to risk with high odds looking for surprises.
 
 The house of bet gives as a favorite to Liren and seen the seen so far it is but I think not so much as to give us these fees in favor of the Armenian. Yesterday Aronian made draw in the Armageddon against Vachier and that has made him off the hook in the standings and have Carlsen to 2 points.
 
 Liren for its part made tables against Anand which is doing a bad tournament and in the tiebreaker suffered a lot to end up losing on move 27.
 
 They have played 7 games at a classical pace in which 5 have been tables and 2 wins for the Chinese
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4
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 8th, 2019
« on: June 08, 2019, 02:36:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 08/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
VOID
Tip Win So Handicap 0 .
Odds Stake 31/10 0.5
VOID
 Reasoning ...

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I'm going by quota and because there is no Tipster League, if someone is encouraged to go smooth. In case of tables, they give us back the money.
 
 I am going to go against a tremendous player who played the last World Championship against Carlsen and in this mode he controlled it very well finishing all the games in tables.
 
 The reason as I say is the quota but also that the American is not at his best. It will not get many fans in Norway and less with the game deployed, in blitz you know because it is not your thing, but in classic is also wrong.
 
 In the first round against GM Mamedyarov made draw but in armageddon he took the colors, in the second round he won Vachier and in the third round before Liren played horrible (he let himself break the structure of pawns, he left pieces and passivity of his bishops) and lost.
 
 So is in the group of players with 4 points that aspire to surprise and be a prophet in Carlsen territory.
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5
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 8th, 2019
« on: June 08, 2019, 02:18:06 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 08/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
VOID
Tip Win Ding Liren Handicap 0 .
Odds Stake 10/11 2.5
VOID
 Reasoning ...

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I go with the Chinese in this game, if at the end they draw, the bet is null.
 
 The truth is that I do not understand very well the odds giving Anand the favorite with the bad tournament he is doing. On the other hand Liren is playing the tournament with 3 other players as I commented on the Carlsen pick.
 
 Anand drew against Carlsen in the first round and then was swept in the tiebreak, in second lost to Mamedyarov (loose tournament if not for this victory) and in the third made tables against Vachier and in the jump-off taking advantage of the fact that Blacks are worth the tables achieved 1.5 points.
 
 I have not seen well either in blitz or in classics and against Chinese is playing right, better in slow rhythms evidently but well. Her victory is at 7.6 which is beautiful to try.
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6
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 8th, 2019
« on: June 08, 2019, 02:06:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 08/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Win Carlsen .
Odds Stake 17/11 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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I'll be back with Magnus Carlsen after yesterday's rest day. He will face Mamedyarov in this 4th round with 1 point advantage over Ding, Aronian and So in general.
 
 It is true that of his 5 points he has won 3 after Armageddon in the games against Aronian and Anand but he is the best and I think he can take the victory as he did against Grishchuk in the previous round.
 
 He has played 10 games at this rate against the GM of Azerbaijan with 3 wins and 7 draws. The normal and logical tables are but the victories of the best player in history above the pair I have to try.
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7
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 4th, 2019
« on: June 04, 2019, 02:12:04 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 04/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Win Vachier-Lagrave
Odds Stake 12/5 0.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Departure of the French GM against Yangyi, one of the weakest players in the tournament.
 
 Vachier-Lagrave is in great shape as he showed yesterday and I think that this game is the most appropriate to start and start earning points for the tournament.
 
 As I said in the other pick the tables are normal but with the rival, the dynamics and the quota the idea of betting on the French is not far-fetched.
 
 They have played 7 games at this rate with 1 win and 2 tables with white and 3 tables with black.
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8
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 4th, 2019
« on: June 04, 2019, 01:46:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 04/06/2019  hour: 17:00
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Win Carlsen
Odds Stake 9/5 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Yesterday we failed the Norwegian genius in the mini blitz tournament to choose the amount of white and black. I think if something else had been at stake I would have squeezed more in a game.
 
 Play against Viswanathan Anand number 9 in the world that he just defeated yesterday, although today it will be different since the clock starts in 2 hours for the entire game with 10 seconds increase only after move 40. The offer of tables is not allowed until move 30. In the game Armageddon, White has 10 minutes for 7 of the blacks with 3 seconds of increment only after the 61st move. In the case of tables, Black takes the whole point. If at the end of the tournament there is a tie between the first two, a tiebreaker will be played to two 3 + 2 games.
 
 As I said I think, it's a mere opinion, that he did not play with everything and saved some little thing for the "real" tournament that starts today. In none of the 9 games we saw neither the English with white nor the pelikan with black which are her two favorite starts.
 
 On the other hand I suppose that the defeats of yesterday will have shown him that although he is much better than the rest if he does not go to 100% he can pay dearly.
 
 The normal thing is that the game ends in tables due to the format and the level of both but I think that a 2.80 fee for its victory must be tested, but with minimal stake.
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9
Winter sports Picks / Brazil - Olimpiadas: Waterpolo - individual vs individual - June 6th, 2019
« on: June 03, 2019, 10:02:05 AM »
Brazil - Olimpiadas: Waterpolo date: 06/06/2019  hour: 19:00
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Pro Recco to win -7.5 goals
Odds Stake 11/12 2
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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All bookmakers have this same handicap but here they give us a better quota. The Italians should win with the difference they want since the difference is abysmal.
 
 The Italians come to celebrate the Scudetto number 33 in their history with an 11-3 in semis against Sport Management, Champions team, and 11-10 in Brescia in the final. They have the best squad in the world with Marko Bijac, voted the best player in Europe in 2017, Francesco di Fulvio or Aleksandar Ivović.
 
 Waspo 98 lost 3-0 to Spandau 04 in the final series of the German championship with great controversy in the last game, Karsten Seehafer discussed with the referee of the match after a haul in which a player ended up bleeding.
 
 They have not faced this season since they obviously did not share a group but they can play matches they have had against similar teams, all lower. Against Dubrovnik he lost by 18-7 and 7-14 and against Olympiacos 17-7 and 9-9, the games played away from home gave us the green and in the home a game was a goal, I say that the Italians They are better than either of those two.
 
 Pro Recco was the only team to finish unbeaten despite having the strongest group with Barceloneta, Ferencvarosi and Brescia.
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10
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - June 3rd, 2019
« on: May 28, 2019, 05:46:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 03/06/2019  hour: 18:30
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Magnus Carlsen to win the Super Tournament. Norway Chess. Blitz. 2019
Odds Stake 11/17 2.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Magnus Carlsen is still unstoppable since the last world championship won to Caruana and only knows how to win tournaments. After winning in Côte d'Ivoire in fast and blitz he has been playing several games, gave a simultaneous games exhibition and played an exhibition duel against the Danish international master, Jonas Suhl Bjerre, of 14 years. The final score of the simultaneous ones was in 25: 0 in favor of Carlsen and the friendly duel won it 2: 0.
 
 A part he played a mini tournament to 6 rounds (Chess Stars Tournament) against Karjakin, Liren and Anand and although in a more adjusted way he also won (fast mode).
 
 By this I mean that it is not only the best in the world, I would say that of the history no matter how much some of Kasparov's followers are hurting, it is in the best possible way. Play against the top10 as if they were IM, demonstrating a great superiority in important moments such as the middle game and the finals. Even when he makes a mistake he is able to turn the game around and achieve the tables at least.
 
 The tournament is in blitz mode (the fastest) and will play part of the Norwegian genius GM Vachier-Lagrave, Aronian, Liren, Caruana, Grishchuk, Mamedyarov, Anand, Wesley Me and Su. It's a shame that Nakamura does not play because I think the fee would be a little bit higher.
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11
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - May 17th, 2019
« on: May 17, 2019, 12:54:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/05/2019  hour: 14:30
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Duda goes to the quarter .
Odds Stake 17/13 1
WON
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Eighth finals of the FIDE tournament in Moscow. This is the confrontation between Duda and So and is that the Polish passes the round, is the best of two games. This is the most difficult of the 3 and that is why it is the highest quota.
 
 The Moscow tournament is the first of a total of four tournaments that, apart from the cash prize, will award the two best qualified with places to participate in the next Candidates Tournament that will determine the next challenger to the World Champion in the 2020 World Cup.
 
 The tournament has just started and we are in the second round so we can not draw many conclusions but these are two top players separated by 26 ELO points. Matched match where I think it is better to bet on the highest odds.
 
 I have a predilection for the Polish for personal reasons but he is still a great player and I hope he can achieve the quarter-final against the American.
 
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12
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - May 17th, 2019
« on: May 17, 2019, 12:50:09 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/05/2019  hour: 14:30
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Karjakin goes to the quarter .
Odds Stake 13/14 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Eighth finals of the FIDE tournament in Moscow. This is the clash between Karjakin and Grishchuk and consists of the Russian GM passing the round, it is the best of two games.
 
 The Moscow tournament is the first of a total of four tournaments that, apart from the cash prize, will award the two best qualified with places to participate in the next Candidates Tournament that will determine the next challenger to the World Champion in the 2020 World Cup.
 
 The tournament has just started and we are in the second round so we can not draw many conclusions but these are two top players separated by 20 ELO points. Matched match where I think it is better to bet on the highest odds.
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13
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - May 17th, 2019
« on: May 17, 2019, 12:42:05 PM »
International - Ajedrez date: 17/05/2019  hour: 20:30
VS
individual individual
LOST
Tip Aronian goes to the quarterfinals .
Odds Stake 17/14 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Eighth finals of the FIDE tournament in Moscow. This is the confrontation between Nepo and Aronian and consists in the Armenian passing the round, it is the best of two games.
 
 The Moscow tournament is the first of a total of four tournaments that, apart from the cash prize, will award the two best qualified with places to participate in the next Candidates Tournament that will determine the next challenger to the World Champion in the 2020 World Cup.
 
 The tournament has just started and we are in the second round so we can not draw many conclusions but these are two top players separated by 11 ELO points. Matched match where I think it is better to bet on the highest odds.
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14
Winter sports Picks / Brazil - Olimpiadas: Boxeo - individual vs individual - May 23rd, 2019
« on: May 13, 2019, 01:20:08 PM »
Brazil - Olimpiadas: Boxeo date: 23/05/2019  hour: 20:30
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Partido Regionalista Cantabria more than 26.5% votes
Odds Stake 5/6 1.5
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Bet that is in: Specials - Politics - Elections Comunidad de Cantabria 2019. The bet is that Revilla's party gets more than 26.5% of the votes.
 
 The result obtained by the regionalist party in the general elections is very great, and a seat is obtained, and for these autonomies a better result is expected, winning the elections although without an absolute majority.
 
 In 2015 the party despite remaining second took 30% with more than 95,000 votes to its credit. In the generals of the past month evidently it lowered since it is a party focused towards the community, this puts in its page Web: "Its object is the defense of the interests of Cantabria, and it adopts its decisions, in a democratic and independent way, in its governing bodies, whose seat is in this Autonomous Community, without being conditioned by organisms or structures located outside it. "
 
 And in the polls the percentage they score is over 33%, much more than what they ask here. So although the results are not as good as they mark the polls and watching the last regional I hope they reach that percentage.
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15
Winter sports Picks / International - Ajedrez - individual vs individual - May 11th, 2019
« on: May 11, 2019, 09:42:05 AM »
International - Ajedrez date: 11/05/2019  hour: 16:00
VS
individual individual
WON
Tip Tables Nakamura-Wei
Odds Stake 24/13 0.5
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Game within the Grand Chess Tour played in Côte d'Ivoire, the fast tournament has ended and now begins the blitz mode (it is the fastest modality)
 
 The bet has its risk because the American is next to God Carlsen the fastest in the game of the 64 escaques. But seeing the good tournament that the young Chinese has made in the fast mode we will trust that he can get the tables.
 
 They have met on 3 occasions and at 3 they have reached the tables, it is true that I could not find out what was the mode), by quota and dynamics I go with the tables.
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