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Topics - laks29

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1
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 15:00
01
Angers Clermont Foot
LOST
Tip Angers Over (+) 1.5
Odds Stake 19/17 2.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Ligue 1 match between Angers and Clermont.
 We need at least 2 goals from the home team for green.
 
 They face Angers, ninth with 25 points and Clermont third to last with 14 points.
 
 This pick is based on the very bad moment of the visiting team Clermont. It should be noted that Clermont has achieved more than half of its points (2V 2E) in the first 4 days of the competition.
 Clermont have only won 1 of their last 14 games (1-0 against Lille at home). They have lost a total of 9 times and have drawn the other 4.
 In their last 15 games, Clermont have conceded a total of 32 goals that would have left us 9 green and 6 red.
 
 Angers at home is a good team that has already beaten teams like Rennes 3-0 or OL 2-0 this season. He has a balance of 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in the 8 games he has played at home. Some logical defeats, against Nice and Monaco. It should be noted that he has only been left without seeing the door against OM (best defense in Ligue 1).
 I hope they deliver against a team in crisis.
 
 Good luck!
 
...

2
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 15:00
12
Rennes Nice
LOST
Tip Win Rennes
Odds Stake 11/13 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between Rennes and Nice.
 We need the victory of Rennes for the green.
 
 They face the second, Rennes with 31 points and a quarter, Nice with 27 points in 17 days.
 
 I think Rennes comes a lot better as they have only lost 1 of their last 15 games. In that same period, he has won 11 games. The team defends well (best defense in Ligue 1 with 14 goals conceded) and creates a lot of scoring opportunities. Proof of this is that he has scored no more and no less than 37 goals in these 15 games. 5 of them in their last league game, at Saint-Etienne's home.
 Rennes at home have won 6 of the 9 games they have played. They have not played in European competition this week against Tottenham, so the team arrives rested.
 
 For its part, Nice, after a very promising start to the season, seems to have deflated a bit. They haven't won any of their last 3 matches, in which they haven't even managed to score. They have lost to inferior rivals, such as Metz 0-1 and Strasbourg 0-3.
 
 Good luck!
 
...

3
International - Europa Conference League Grp. B date: 09/12/2021  hour: 18:45
11
Partizan Beograd Anorthosis
LOST
Tip Partizan Beograd Asian Handicap -1 wins
Odds Stake 4/5 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Conference match between Partizan and Anorthosis.
 We need Partizan victory by at least 2 goals ahead for green.
 If the Serbs win by 1 goal, it would be void.
 
 After 5 rounds, Partizan is second in the group with 7 points. Anorthosis, on the other hand, is fourth with 5 points, the same as Flora who will face Gant (a team guaranteed to finish first as they have 10 points and the great goal won at Partizan).
 Having said that, it must be said that the draw is enough for Partizan to secure second place. However, the Serbian team, who should win at home, is far superior. And more with the need for Anorthosis (the draw does not serve him), so he will not play retracted, leaving spaces behind.
 
 The far superior thing is because Partizan is the current leader of the Serbian league after 19 games (17W 2E) while Anorthosis is eighth (out of 12 teams) in the weak Cyprus league after 11 games (6 defeats) .
 
 We can also see it in the other group matches. It was one of the most lopsided groups with 2 good teams (Gant and Partizan) and 2 quite weak teams (Flora and Anorthosis). Proof of this is that Anorthosis comes to this day with 5 points, after 2 draws against Flora and a surprising victory against Gant on the last day. Match in which they have finished 2 times and one has been the winning goal. For the rest, clear dominance of a Belgian team that was already classified with 10 points and that had made several rotations.
 In the Gant / Anorthosis on matchday two, the Belgian team won in a very dominated match from the start 2-0.
 
 In the first round match (corresponding to matchday one), we witnessed a comfortable victory for Partizan by 2 goals to 0 in Cyprus. I think that in Belgrade, Partizan will finish sealing their pass to the round of 32 with an even calmer victory.
 
 Very interesting this @ 1.8 that Betfred offers us when several houses pay the -1.0 of the Partizan environment @ 1.6, even less in some than another.
 
 Good luck!
...

4
International - Europa League Grp. F date: 09/12/2021  hour: 21:00
00
Ludogorets Razgrad FC Midtjylland
LOST
Tip FC Midtjylland wins
Odds Stake 7/10 2.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Europa League match between Ludogorets and Midtjylland.
 We need the victory of the Danish team for the green.
 
 With the last day remaining, Midtjylland are third in their group with 8 points behind Red Star (10 points) and Braga (9 points).
 The current leader of the Danish league is not worth a draw to continue in the competition, since he has lost the private goal against Braga.
 A victory would classify him as second ... or even as first if Estrella Roja and Braga tie (particular goal in favor against Estrella Roja).
 In short, it is a match in which only Midtjylland wins.
 
 They face Ludogorets, bottom of the group with only 1 point in 5 rounds thanks to the draw achieved precisely against Midtjylland on the first round. In a match totally dominated by the Danes: 59% / 41%, 17 shots (4 on goal) to 3 (1 on goal that was a goal), 13 corners on 2, ...
 It should be noted that Ludogorets did not they have won any of their last 17 UEL games. What's more, they have lost 14 of the 17 games and have drawn in the 3 others.
 Ludogorets does not play almost anything (they have no option of reaching the third place that gives access to the Conference) but I do not rule out that they propose a difficult match in their stadium. It is a team that tends to give a better image when it plays at home.
 Despite this, I believe that Midtjylland will be able to demonstrate their superiority in such a transcendent match.
 
 Good luck!
...

5
Mexico - WTA Finals, Chichen Itza Group date: 16/11/2021  hour: 02:30
12
Aryna Sabalenka Maria Sakkari
6-7 7-6 3-6
LOST
Tip Aryna Sabalenka wins
Odds Stake 13/15 2
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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WTA Finals match between Sabalenka and Sakkari.
 We need the victory of the Belarusian player for green.
 
 Match that will decide which of the 2 players passes as second in the group. Paula Badosa has the first place assured since she has beaten both in her first 2 matches in Guadalajara.
 
 I'm going with Sabalenka for various reasons.
 The first is that I have seen Sakkari's match against Paula Badosa and she has suffered a lot from the rest (one of her strengths). He has only obtained 5 break balls in the entire match.
 It is explained by the playing conditions of the Guadalajara tournament (altitude) where the ball bounces very high, which benefits players with a good serve.
 Paula Badosa has made a lot of progress and has improved her serve a lot but she still does not have Sabalenka's serve, one of the best on the circuit without a doubt. And she has made Sakkari have a very bad time, a small player (1.72m) if we compare her with other players on the circuit.
 I think the Greek player is going to suffer today in Sabalenka's service turns. Of course, despite having scored 4 aces against Badosa and 8 against Swiatek, the Belarusian player will have to focus more to avoid committing so many double faults (7 against Badosa and 16 against Swiatek). I am confident that he will do better as he is going from less to more in this tournament, as he explained at the end of his match against Swiatek saying that he surely needed some time to acclimatize to the conditions in Guadalajara.
 
 The second is that it has the Mexican public fully won. In the post-match statements in front of Swiatek, we have seen reciprocal expressions of affection, from the public towards Sabalenka and from Sabalenka towards them, dedicating several hearts and beautiful words to them. She herself has said that it was the public that won that match against Swiatek and that without them, she would never have achieved it. I think that today Guadalajara will help Sabalenka more.
 
 The third is the rival in semis. Sabalenka knows that if he wins today, he will face Kontaveit in the semis. Kontaveit is undoubtedly the most fit player on the circuit (with Paula Badosa's permission) but Sabalenka is her black beast: they have met 4 times and all 4, Sabalenka has won. The Belarusian player knows that if she wins today, she will have a good chance of reaching the final.
 
 And finally, the H2H, very much in favor of Sabalenka. They have met a total of 5 times, all on hard surfaces. Sakkari has won the first and Sabalenka has won the next 4. The last match between the two players was in March this year, in Abu Dhahbi and Sabalenka won by a clear 6/3 6/2.
 
 Interesting is this quota that Marathon offers us when the green house, for example, pays the victory of Sabalenka @ 1.72.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
 
...

6
France - Ligue 1 date: 17/10/2021  hour: 15:00
03
Metz Rennes
VOID
Tip More than 4.0 cards
Odds Stake 11/13 4
VOID
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between Metz and Rennes.
 We need 5 cards in the match for green. If there are 4 cards, it would be null.
 
 Metz is the second team in Ligue 1 that receives the most cards, with 23 yellow cards and 2 red cards received in 9 games, which gives us an average of 2.56 yellow cards received per game and an average of 0, 22 red cards / match.
 When he plays at home, he receives even more cards as he has received a total of 12 yellow cards in the 4 games he has played at home, bringing the average up to 3 yellow cards received / game. As for the 2 expulsions, they have also been in games played at home.
 Has received at least 2 cards in each of the 4 games played at home: against Lille, 1 yellow and 1 red, against Reims 4 yellow and red against the coach, against Troyes 2 yellow and against PSG, 5 yellow, 1 sent off for double warning and again expulsion of the coach.
 We must not forget that Antonetti's team arrives in need for today's game: after a good season last year, the team only adds 6 points in 9 rounds and is in eighteenth position in the table.
 
 Rennes, in terms of cards, is in the middle with 18 yellow cards and 1 red card received in 9 matchdays. Away from home, it receives more cards and is the fifth team that has received the most in the championship, when it plays as a visitor.
 A total of 11 yellow cards in 4 games played away from their stadium which gives us an average of 2.75 yellow cards / game.
 The expulsion has also occurred with Rennes as a visitor.
 During their visits, the team has received 3 yellow cards in Brest and in Marseille. He has received 4 yellow cards against Bordeaux and Bade has been sent off for a double warning against Angers.
 In the Conference League, the Breton team received 2 yellow cards on their visit to Norway against Rosenborg and 5 yellow cards and Bade was once again sent off for a double warning on his visit to the Netherlands against Vitesse.
 Rennes also need to add, since after 9 rounds, they only add 12 points and it is a team called to finish at the top of this Ligue 1.
 
 The referee of the match will be Benoit Millot who has refereed 4 Ligue 1 matches So far this season, in which he has taken a total of 19 yellow cards and 0 red cards. Which would give us an average of 4.75 cards drawn per game.
 At the moment, we would have left 2 void to the proposed line in OM / Saint-Etienne and in Lens / Lille and 2 greens in Nantes / Nice (5 yellow cards) and in Clermont / Monaco (6 yellow cards) .
 
 Good luck!
...

7
USA - BNP Paribas Open date: 15/10/2021  hour: 00:00
02
Anett Kontaveit Ons Jabeur
5-7 3-6
WON
Tip More than 6.5 breaks
Odds Stake 24/23 3
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Indian Wells WTA quarterfinal match between Anett Kontaveit and Ons Jabeur.
 We are looking for at least 7 breaks in the match or more for green.
 
 2 players face each other who arrive in a splendid moment of form.
 On the one hand, we have Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian player who has won 16 of her last 18 matches (all on hard surface). Of the 2 that has not won, it must be said that one has not even participated and the other against a great Swiatek in 3 sets, at the US Open.
 On the other hand, we have Tunisian Ons Jabeur who has just made history by entering the top 10. Also, she leaves us great results this summer as she has won 14 of her last 18 matches. He has lost to Mertens, Muguruza (3 sets), Pegula (3 sets) and Kvitova.
 I think we will see a beautiful and fought match, which can be extended. As the last one that these 2 players have left us and in which they have converted up to 12 breaks. They are 2 aggressive players who will attack each other throughout the game.
 Very interesting this @ 2.04 of Marathon when the green house pays the 7 breaks to @ 1.8.
 
 Good luck!
...

8
International - Women's Champions League Grp. C date: 14/10/2021  hour: 21:00
40
Arsenal Women TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
WON
Tip Over (+) 3
Odds Stake 13/15 4
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Women's Champions match between Arsenal and Hoffenheim.
 We are looking for 4 or more goals in the match for green. If there are 3 goals in the match, it is void.
 
 Minus the (logical) defeat against Barça, Arsenal have shown a high level so far this season as they have won all their other games. 5 league games, 4 of the Champions League and 1 of the FAC.
 Also, the Arsenal girls leave us great scoring records: they have scored at least 3 goals in each of their games, including victories against Chelsea and City.
 And at the Johan Cruyff, they managed to see the goal and even dominated the game in some moments of the second half. Which is no small thing. With the 3-0 against that yes.
 Today, they will come out with the need to add as they play at home against their direct rival to go to the second round (as second in the group, of course).
 
 
 For their part, Hoffenheim is off to an excellent start to the season. He has only lost 1 of his 11 matches, all competitions confused. Against Bayern last league match, 3-1.
 He has 8 victories (3 in the Champions qualifying phase, 1 in the first Champions League match, 1 in the Cup and 3 in the Bundesliga) and 2 draws (1 in the Champions qualifying phase and 1 in the league).
 It should be noted that it is a team that has managed to see the rival goal in 10 of its 11 games. A total of 24 goals scored in 11 games.
 And finally, it must be said that the Germans have conceded against teams much lower than Arsenal, such as Frankfurt, Freiburg or even Cologne.
 I think both teams will score and that Arsenal, out of necessity, to play at home and for the moment in form, would have to score at least 2 goals. Both score is a good option, but, given the possible defeat of Arsenal without conceding, I prefer to stay with this option.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
 
...

9
USA - BNP Paribas Open date: 09/10/2021  hour: 03:00
12
Jack Sock John Millman
5-7 6-4 3-6
LOST
Tip Jack Sock wins
Odds Stake 1/1 5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Indian Wells ATP tournament match between Jack Sock and John Millman.
 We seek the victory of the American player for green.
 
 Jack Sock has received a Wild Card to participate in this tournament. And it is that injuries have punished in recent years who has become number 8 ATP (2017). Which has resulted in a drop in the ATP ranking to number 253 earlier this year.
 The American has played many challengers this year, in which he has left the odd interesting result, which has allowed him to climb positions in the ranking. On his return to the ATP circuit, he has left us interesting things such as the match against Nadal in Washington, in which the Spaniard had to go to the tie break of the third set to win the match, or the great US Open that he has held: after After beating Nishioka and Bublik, he has put an intractable Zverev in great trouble, before injuring himself.
 It should be noted that the American plays particularly motivated at home.
 
 As for Millman, he has been having a very irregular season that has cost him 20 places in the ATP ranking. His balance on hard surface is negative as he has won 10 and lost 11 games so far this year. It is true that he reaches the most popular game since he has played more games in recent weeks but his results are not to shoot rockets either. His recent defeats against Laaksonen (number 98 ATP) at the US Open, against Duckworth (number 55) in Kazakhstan and against Giron (number 59) in Sofia stand out. In those 3 losses, he has not won 1 set.
 Playing at home, at even odds and with the support of the public, I stay with Sock.
 
 Good luck!
...

10
USA - BNP Paribas Open date: 09/10/2021  hour: 03:00
20
Petra Kvitova Arantxa Rus
6-2 6-2
WON
Tip Petra Kvitova wins 2 - 0
Odds Stake 8/9 5
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Indian Wells WTA tournament match between Petra Kvitova and Arantxa Rus.
 We are looking for Kvitova's victory in straight sets for green.
 
 It is a pick that I have to make because of how badly Rus is doing this year on hard surfaces and in which, clearly, he has preferred to focus on clay tournaments. Proof of this is that this Indian Wells is Rus' first tournament on a hard surface since its defeat in the first round of the US Open, on August 31. In that time, he has returned to playing on clay in 2 tournaments in Valencia, of which he has won one (ITF). While Kvitova has not changed surface and has played in Ostrava, at home, where she has beaten Potapova and Teichmann, before falling in the semis, against a great Kontaveit, future winner of the tournament. Therefore, I think Kvitova arrives better prepared.
 
 Speaking of the Dutch player's streak on hard surfaces, it must be said that she has only won 3 of her 10 matches this year on those surfaces. The victories have been against little-known players: against Wang Xiy (number 137 WTA), against Bouzkova (number 93) and that of R1 here against Parks (number 245). The rest, 7 defeats, some of them very hard and only 2 sets won, 1 against Wang Xiy herself and another against Minnen (number 79). Their defeats against Venus 6/1 6/3, Swiatek 6/1 6/3, Sakkari 6/2 6/3 or Bencic 6/4 6/4 stand out.
 
 As for Kvitova, she is not in the shape of her life, but against lesser rivals, she tends to concede very little. In addition, without being her best season, we have seen her frequently in the advanced rounds of her last tournaments (title in Doha, eighth in Miami, fourth in Cincinnati, sixteenth in the US Open or the recent semis in Ostrava).
 
 Good luck!
...

11
USA - BNP Paribas Open date: 09/10/2021  hour: 03:00
02
Emma Raducanu Aliaksandra Sasnovich
2-6 4-6
LOST
Tip Emma Raducanu wins 2 - 0
Odds Stake 8/11 5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Indian Wells WTA tournament match between Emma Raducanu and Sasnovich.
 We are looking for Raducanu's victory in straight sets for green.
 
 I'm going to go very fast with this pick since in my opinion it depends more on other factors than on the game. Because if we talk about tennis, the brand new champion of the US Open, in which she has not yielded a set in the entire tournament, is infinitely better than Sasnovich, number 100 WTA.
 The Belarusian player who has been doing an irregular season but above all does not measure up against recognized rivals. This is demonstrated by their defeats this summer against Begu 6/2 6/4, Rybakina 2 times 6/2 6/3 and 6/4 6/4 or Mertens who did manage to snatch the first set before succumbing 3 / 6 6/2 7/5.
 Now we will have to see how Raducanu returns and if he continues with the impressive level he has shown so far. Because we cannot forget that it is his return to competition from New York, that now attracts much more media attention and that he is only 18 years old. It will be necessary to see how it manages all the pressure. But she has shown so much superiority and a head so well furnished that I am going to trust her.
 
 Good luck!
...

12
USA - BNP Paribas Open date: 08/10/2021  hour: 23:05
20
Albert Ramos-Vinolas Lorenzo Musetti
6-1 6-3
LOST
Tip Lorenzo Musetti wins
Odds Stake 4/5 5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Indian Wells ATP tournament match between Albert Ramos and Lorenzo Musetti.
 We are looking for the victory of the Italian player for green.
 
 First of all, it must be said that Albert Ramos is quite allergic to hard surfaces, he is a good clay court player but on hard surfaces, we can say that his results are bad. Proof of this is that since he turned professional in 2009, he has not finished a single season with a positive balance on hard surfaces. When at the same time, it has left us only positive balances on land (except for 2020, which has played very little).
 
 Second, the Catalan player has prepared very little for Indian Wells: he has played very little since his elimination at the US Open against Zverev in early September. Only one match (and on clay) that he has lost to Kuhn, number 257 ATP.
 After his elimination in the US Open against Opelka, Musetti for his part has returned to competition (on hard surface) on September 21, playing the tournaments in Kazakhstan and Sofia, in which he has accumulated 3 matches and 9 sets .
 
 Finally, it must be said that Musetti has played many more matches this year on hard surfaces, a total of 25 matches in which he presents a positive balance of 15 wins by 10 losses. Although he does not arrive in the way of his life since he has only won 2 of his last 9 games, I see him better prepared than Albert Ramos (with more games on this surface in the last month) and he has shown in his young career that he is capable to play very good games on this surface.
 
 Good luck!
...

13
USA - BNP Paribas Open date: 08/10/2021  hour: 21:30
01
Magda Linette Victoria Azarenka
5-7
VOID
Tip Victoria Azarenka wins 2 - 0
Odds Stake 22/23 5
VOID
 Reasoning ...

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Indian Wells WTA tournament match between Magda Linette and Victoria Azarenka.
 We are looking for the Belarusian victory by 2 sets to 0 for green.
 
 I think there is a lot of difference between both players.
 When we see the results of Azarenka this year on hard surface, we can see that they have won 14 games and lost 8. What should be noted is that of the 8 defeats, 3 have been by abandonment without even starting the match and the 5 others have been against very top players: she has lost 2 times to Barty, 1 to a very fit Pegula at the Australian Open, 1 to Sabalenka in Montreal and to Muguruza at the US Open.
 Of his 14 victories (1 by default), he has only given up 3 sets. 10 wins 2-0, showing that Azarenka generally eats inferior rivals.
 On the other hand, we have Magda Linette, number 54 WTA, very far from the level of the Barty, Sabalenka or Muguruza. He has played 20 games on hard surface, of which he has won 11 and lost 9. What should be noted here is that when he plays against superior opponents, he suffers and generally does not measure up. Proof of this are their losses this year in straight sets against Teichmann, Begu, Sabalenka or Konta.
 I look forward to a comfortable victory from Azarenka.
 
 Good luck!
...

14
USA - San Diego Open date: 04/10/2021  hour: 01:00
02
Cameron Norrie Casper Ruud
0-6 2-6
WON
Tip Casper Ruud wins
Odds Stake 18/19 5
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Final of the ATP tournament in San Diego between Cameron Norrie and Casper Ruud.
 We are looking for the victory of the Norwegian for green.
 
 It is true that Cameron Norrie has had a great tournament and that he has eliminated great players like Shapovalov and Rublev. Against the Russian, it is also true that he has saved 8 of the 9 break balls he had against.
 But Casper Ruud is also in great form. Proof of this is that he has only lost 3 of his last 26 games and less the unexpected defeat at the US Open against Van De Zandschulp, the other 2 have been against very top players: in the quarterfinals in Toronto against Tsitsipas and in quarters also in Cincinnati versus Zverev.
 It is true that some of those victories for the Norwegian have been on clay but this season, Casper Ruud has shut up many mouths by proving to be a very complete player, also on hard surface.
 We must finally highlight the importance for the Norwegian of scoring points to qualify for the ATP Finals. At the moment, he is tenth in the ATP ranking, Federer and Nadal (who surpass him in the classification) are not going to participate, but he has Alliassime, Hurkacz, Shapovalov and even Sinner (who won yesterday in Sofia) who are pressing him.
 It will not be easy, but I am confident in a victory for the Norwegian player.
 
 Good luck!
...

15
International - Champions League Grp. D date: 28/09/2021  hour: 18:45
00
Shakhtar Donetsk Inter
LOST
Tip Inter wins
Odds Stake 5/8 5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

This is an automatic translation from Spanish. Please check here the source tip

Champions match between Shakhtar and Inter.
 We are looking for the victory of the Italians for the green.
 
 I have been able to see the second leg of the Champions League preview between Shakhtar and Monaco, and I have seen how a Monaco that has nothing to do with last season's Monaco has literally eaten a Shakhtar who has passed from a true miracle, for an own goal in overtime, in an action without danger. The Ukrainian team also left a poor image in the first game against the Sheriff.
 For its part, this season's Inter, despite the departures of Lukaku, Achraf and their coach Conte, in my opinion, is worth the one from last season, who has become Serie A champion and let me explain. Inzaghi has arrived, who had already done his tests in Serie A with Lazio, and has not touched the system. They have signed Dumfries, who is a plane down the right wing, to replace Achraf and have improved the left lane with the arrival of Federico Di Marco. Upstairs, to make up for Lukaku's goals, they have brought in Joaquin Correa from Lazio and Edin Dzeko, who is increasingly adapting to the team.
 Proof of this is the spectacular start of the season for the reigning champions, who add 4 wins and 1 draw in the first 5 days. Above all, they leave us with a convincing game with many arrivals at the rival goal: Inter have scored at least 2 goals in the 5 games played and a total of 18 goals scored.
 In the Champions League, they have lost (unfairly in my opinion) against a Madrid that makes a great start to the season. And I think it suits us well for the pick due to the need to add the 3 points of the Italians.
 Finally, we must not forget that last season, both teams met in the group stage and Shakhtar left Inter out of Europe, after 2 draws to 0 between both teams, the second of them on the last day of the group stage. In both games, a much superior Inter has been seen that has failed to convert its many opportunities. I don't think history will repeat itself this year.
 
 Good luck!
...

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