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Messages - laks29

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1
Bulgaria - First Professional League date: 13/12/2021  hour: 15:30
35
Ludogorets Razgrad Pirin Blagoevgrad
WON
Tip Ludogorets Razgrad Over (+) 2.5
Odds Stake 26/19 2
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Bulgarian league match between Ludogorets and Pirin Blagoevgrad.
 We need at least 3 goals from Ludogorets for green.
 
 They face the leader of the Bulgarian league, Ludogorets, and the second to last Pirin Blagoevgrad.
 Ludogorets is the highest-scoring team in the competition with 43 goals scored in 16 games, while the visiting team is the highest-scoring team with 32 goals conceded in 18 games.
 Ludogorets improve their numbers when they play in their field. In fact, they have won all 9 games they have played at home, scoring 26 goals and conceding only 2.
 For their part, Pirin Blagoevgrad have worse numbers when playing away. Away from home, he has only added 2 points in the 9 games he has played (7 losses).
 In the first round match, Ludogorets won away 1-3.
 Ludogorets will not be able to count on their goalscorer Sotiriu for today's match but they recover their other goalscorer, Spanish Higinio Marin, who returns from injury.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
 
...

2
Spain - LaLiga date: 12/12/2021  hour: 21:00
20
Real Madrid Atletico Madrid
LOST
Tip Asensio 2 or more shots on goal
Odds Stake 36/13 1.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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League match between Real Madrid and Atletico.
 We need at least 2 shots between Marco Asensio's 3 clubs for the green.
 
 Confirmed lineups and Madrid comes out with Vinicius, Benzema and Asensio on top.
 The Mallorcan player has left great performances in the last matches in which he has had the opportunity to play. He comes to today's game with confidence after his great goal against Inter.
 In the last matches that he has played as a starter, Asensio leaves us 3 shots (2 on goal) against Rayo, 3 shots (2 on goal and 1 goal) against Granada, 3 shots (2 on goal) against Athletic, 2 shots (none on goal) against Sevilla.
 He is a player who has a lot of confidence (rightly) in his left foot and who takes the slightest opportunity to try his luck. It usually has good precision.
 
 Good luck!
...

3
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 20:45
20
Paris Saint-Germain Monaco
LOST
Tip Messi More than 1.5 shots on goal
Odds Stake 5/4 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between PSG and Monaco.
 We need at least 2 shots on goal by Leo Messi for green.
 
 It is also a pick based above all on this incredible @ 2.25 that Paf offers us. It is found in "Player and shots on target". You pay @ 1.9 at Retabet and @ 1.4 at Betfair ...
 Nor is it a pick that needs many arguments. We all know what Messi can do on a soccer field. Especially when he has the day. With Neymar injured, it is the main offensive argument of PSG, with Mbappe. He comes from scoring a double in the Champions League against Bruges (5 shots, 3 on goal).
 In his last Ligue 1 matches, Leo has finished off several times on goal, without the precision that we are used to. Since his goal against Nantes, he has finished 3 times against Saint-Etienne (1 shot on goal), 6 against Nice (1 on goal) and 5 against Lens (0 on goal). In my opinion, Leo is going to end up improving his numbers in Ligue 1 and this lack of precision in his shots is very unusual.
 
 Good luck!
...

4
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 20:45
20
Paris Saint-Germain Monaco
WON
Tip Mbappe Over 1.5 shots on goal
Odds Stake 7/4 2.5
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between PSG and Monaco.
 We need at least 2 shots on goal from Kylian Mbappe for the green.
 
 Well, nothing, it is a pick based above all on this incredible @ 2.75 that Paf offers us. It is found in "Player and shots on target". It pays @ 1.73 in Retabet and @ 1.33 in Betfair ...
 It is not a pick that needs many arguments. We all know that if he has the day, Mbappe can even score 2 or 3 goals. With Neymar injured, it is the main offensive argument of PSG, with Leo. He comes from scoring a double in the Champions League against Bruges (5 shots, 3 on goal).
 In his last 3 Ligue 1 games, he hasn't managed to score, maybe that's where the odds come from. Being Mbappe, I don't think this streak will last many games and I see the goal of the Parisian star as very likely today.
 In those same 3 games he has finished twice on goal against Saint-Etienne and against Lens. Against Nice, he has finished up to 5 times but only 1 between the 3 suits.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
...

5
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 15:00
01
Angers Clermont Foot
LOST
Tip Angers Over (+) 1.5
Odds Stake 19/17 2.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between Angers and Clermont.
 We need at least 2 goals from the home team for green.
 
 They face Angers, ninth with 25 points and Clermont third to last with 14 points.
 
 This pick is based on the very bad moment of the visiting team Clermont. It should be noted that Clermont has achieved more than half of its points (2V 2E) in the first 4 days of the competition.
 Clermont have only won 1 of their last 14 games (1-0 against Lille at home). They have lost a total of 9 times and have drawn the other 4.
 In their last 15 games, Clermont have conceded a total of 32 goals that would have left us 9 green and 6 red.
 
 Angers at home is a good team that has already beaten teams like Rennes 3-0 or OL 2-0 this season. He has a balance of 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in the 8 games he has played at home. Some logical defeats, against Nice and Monaco. It should be noted that he has only been left without seeing the door against OM (best defense in Ligue 1).
 I hope they deliver against a team in crisis.
 
 Good luck!
 
...

6
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 15:00
12
Rennes Nice
LOST
Tip Win Rennes
Odds Stake 11/13 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between Rennes and Nice.
 We need the victory of Rennes for the green.
 
 They face the second, Rennes with 31 points and a quarter, Nice with 27 points in 17 days.
 
 I think Rennes comes a lot better as they have only lost 1 of their last 15 games. In that same period, he has won 11 games. The team defends well (best defense in Ligue 1 with 14 goals conceded) and creates a lot of scoring opportunities. Proof of this is that he has scored no more and no less than 37 goals in these 15 games. 5 of them in their last league game, at Saint-Etienne's home.
 Rennes at home have won 6 of the 9 games they have played. They have not played in European competition this week against Tottenham, so the team arrives rested.
 
 For its part, Nice, after a very promising start to the season, seems to have deflated a bit. They haven't won any of their last 3 matches, in which they haven't even managed to score. They have lost to inferior rivals, such as Metz 0-1 and Strasbourg 0-3.
 
 Good luck!
 
...

7
France - Ligue 1 date: 12/12/2021  hour: 13:00
00
Lille Lyon
LOST
Tip Lille wins
Odds Stake 13/10 2
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Ligue 1 match between Lille and Lyon.
 We are looking for the victory of Lille for the green.
 
 The 2 teams, who fought for the title last year, are in great need at today's game. Lille are in eleventh place, while Lyon are in sixteenth position in the leaderboard.
 This situation is surely due to the effort made by both teams in continental competitions, in which Lille has won their Champions League group and OL theirs in the Europa League.
 
 I see Lille a little better for 2 reasons:
 
 1- Lille is a team that performs better at home. Proof of this is that he has achieved 15 of his 24 points at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy. The Nordic team comes to today's game without losing any of their last 10 home games (5V 5E) between the Champions League (3 games) and the league (7 games).
 
 -2 the casualties presented by the OL today. The OL will not be able to count on 2 of its main players: the central Denayer and above all, its best player, the Brazilian Lucas Paqueta.
 We must not forget either that OL has problems in defense this season and concedes a lot of goals. He has already conceded 25 goals in 16 days and 15 of these goals have been when OL has played away.
 OL have failed to beat Lille in their last 7 league games.
 
 Good luck!
...

8
Spain - LaLiga date: 11/12/2021  hour: 21:00
01
Athletic Bilbao Sevilla
LOST
Tip Athletic Bilbao Over (+) 1
Odds Stake 8/9 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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League match between Athletic and Sevilla.
 We need 2 goals from Athletic for green. If Athletic scores exactly 1 goal, it would be void.
 
 The odds to goal lines for this game are marked by the defensive numbers of both teams as the 2 best defenders in the League face each other. Both teams have only conceded 11 goals, Athletic in 16 games and Sevilla in 15 games.
 
 However, I think we will see goals today. The 2 teams have good attacking potential and are capable of scoring goals against any rival (as they have recently shown at the Bernabeu where clear chances have been created).
 It is true that Athletic is struggling a bit more in attack this season as they have only scored 13 goals in 16 matchdays but it should be noted that 9 of their goals have been scored in San Mames (7 games).
 I think the Champions League game that Sevilla lost in Salzburg is going to influence a lot. Sevilla have had to try their best and with 10 players in the last half hour. You can notice a lot of fatigue today against an Athletic that arrives after having prepared this match all week.
 
 In short, I do not think that Sevilla will keep their goal to 0 in San Mames, after the effort of the Champions and against an Athletic that has had all week to focus on today's game. In Marathon, they pay us almost at par for the +1.0 goals of Athletic. We are going with it, waiting for a great game from the Lions.
 
 Good luck!
...

9
USA - NBA date: 11/12/2021  hour: 01:00
124123
Charlotte Hornets Sacramento Kings
LOST
Tip Hayward double-double
Odds Stake 33/10 1
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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NBA game between Charlotte Hornets and Sacramento Kings.
 We need a double-double from Hornets player Hayward for the green.
 
 2 high-pace teams face off. Despite the casualties, the Hornets do not give up their style and I think we would have to attend a game with a lot of points. The line is at 231.5 for the match. The Hornets' points would have to come from somewhere.
 Looking at what James Borrego has available, the Hornets' best scorers are Oubre Jr and Bridges.
 Since the casualties, Hayward has taken a step forward and has also delivered great performances, bordering on double-double.
 
 Good luck!
...

10
USA - NBA date: 11/12/2021  hour: 01:00
124123
Charlotte Hornets Sacramento Kings
LOST
Tip Oubre Jr Over 24.5 points
Odds Stake 18/19 1.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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NBA game between Charlotte Hornets and Sacramento Kings.
 We need at least 25 points from Hornets player Oubre Jr for the green.
 
 2 high-pace teams face off. Despite the casualties, the Hornets do not give up their style and I think we would have to attend a game with a lot of points. The line is at 231.5 for the match.
 Looking at what James Borrego has available, the Hornets' best scorers are Oubre Jr and Bridges.
 Already in the last 3 games without Lamelo and Rozier, Oubre has scored 28, 35 and 22 points.
 
 Good luck!
...

11
USA - NBA date: 11/12/2021  hour: 01:00
124123
Charlotte Hornets Sacramento Kings
LOST
Tip Sacramento Kings win
Odds Stake 13/15 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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NBA game between Charlotte Hornets and Sacramento Kings.
 We need the Kings win for green.
 
 They face the ninth in the East, Hornets, with a balance of 14 wins and 13 losses and the tenth in the Western Conference, Kings, with a balance of 11 wins and 14 losses.
 
 I go with the Kings because of the plague of casualties suffered by the Hornets.
 They have already held out in the last 3 games, in which they have beaten the Hawks, and have shown their face in the 2 games against the 76ers losing one of them in overtime. And I say they have endured because the Hornets already suffered a lot of casualties, including those of Lamelo Ball and Terry Rozier, their 2 best players.
 To all the previous casualties, there are added those of Smith, Richards and the doubt of PJ Washington. Therefore, James Borrego will have very few players available for today's game: Bridges, Oubre Jr, Martin, Hayward, Bouknight, Thor and little else.
 
 The Kings, meanwhile, present the only loss of Holmes. They arrive with confidence after winning their last 3 games, 2 of them against the Clippers.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
...

12
Italy - Serie A date: 10/12/2021  hour: 20:45
13
Genoa Sampdoria
WON
Tip Gabbiadini 2 or more shots on target
Odds Stake 19/13 2
WON
 Reasoning ...

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Serie A match between Genoa and Sampdoria.
 We need at least 2 Ekdal shots for the green.
 
 We're going to the Genoa derby.
 Genoa arrives at today's game in the midst of a crisis. He is second to last in Serie A with only 10 points (1 single win) in 16 rounds.
 At home, Genoa still do not know the victory (3E 4D). Since the arrival of Shevchenko, things have not improved and are even worse since the team has not scored a single goal and concedes a lot of facilities behind: Roma have finished him 19 times (2 goals), Udinese 17 times (0 goals ), Milan 18 times (3 goals) and Juve 27 times (2 goals).
 This situation is largely to blame for the plague of injuries to key players such as Destro, Fares, Rovella, Caicedo, Maksimovic, Criscito and Sturaro. These last 2 will be there today.
 
 Sampdoria are not at their best either, but they have improved the team that comes after winning 2 of their last 4 games against Salernitana 0-2 and Hellas Verona 3-1. Logical defeats against Fiorentina 3-1 and Lazio 1-3.
 In these matches, Sampdoria has finished 13, 15, 11 and 18 times.
 
 So I think we will see a few shots from Sampdoria.
 And we go with Gabbiadini, Sampdoria striker, who is very fit for today's game. After coming into play in the 86th minute against Salernitana (he had time to finish on goal) and against Verona in the 85th minute (1 shot), it seems that he has won the title. Against Fiorentina and against Lazio, he started in the starting eleven and finished 4 times (3 on goal) and 5 times (3 on goal and 1 goal). After his goal on the last day, he repeats today in the starting eleven. He is a player who is characterized by always trying.
 Very interesting this @ 2.46 by Retabet when Codere pays the 2 shots on goal by Gabbiadini @ 1.65 and Betfair @ 2.1.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
 
...

13
Italy - Serie A date: 10/12/2021  hour: 20:45
13
Genoa Sampdoria
LOST
Tip Ekdal 2 shots or more
Odds Stake 17/4 1.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Serie A match between Genoa and Sampdoria.
 We need at least 2 Ekdal shots for the green.
 
 We're going to the Genoa derby.
 Genoa arrives at today's game in the midst of a crisis. He is second to last in Serie A with only 10 points (1 single win) in 16 rounds.
 At home, Genoa still do not know the victory (3E 4D). Since the arrival of Shevchenko, things have not improved and are even worse since the team has not scored a single goal and concedes a lot of facilities behind: Roma have finished him 19 times (2 goals), Udinese 17 times (0 goals ), Milan 18 times (3 goals) and Juve 27 times (2 goals).
 This situation is largely to blame for the plague of injuries to key players such as Destro, Fares, Rovella, Caicedo, Maksimovic, Criscito and Sturaro. These last 2 will be there today.
 
 Sampdoria are not at their best either, but they have improved the team that comes after winning 2 of their last 4 games against Salernitana 0-2 and Hellas Verona 3-1. Logical defeats against Fiorentina 3-1 and Lazio 1-3.
 In these matches, Sampdoria has finished 13, 15, 11 and 18 times.
 
 So I think we will see a few shots from Sampdoria.
 And we go with Ekdal, Samp midfielder, who has finished 7 times in the last 2 he has played and who arrives with confidence after scoring his first goal of the season. Against Verona he has finished 3 times (1 goal). He has not been able to participate in the next game against Fiorentina due to accumulation of cards and has finished up to 4 times against Lazio.
 Very interesting this @ 5.25 that Retabet offers us. In Codere @ 2.33.
 
 Good luck!
 
 
 
...

14
International - Europa Conference League Grp. B date: 09/12/2021  hour: 18:45
11
Partizan Beograd Anorthosis
LOST
Tip Partizan Beograd Asian Handicap -1 wins
Odds Stake 4/5 3
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Conference match between Partizan and Anorthosis.
 We need Partizan victory by at least 2 goals ahead for green.
 If the Serbs win by 1 goal, it would be void.
 
 After 5 rounds, Partizan is second in the group with 7 points. Anorthosis, on the other hand, is fourth with 5 points, the same as Flora who will face Gant (a team guaranteed to finish first as they have 10 points and the great goal won at Partizan).
 Having said that, it must be said that the draw is enough for Partizan to secure second place. However, the Serbian team, who should win at home, is far superior. And more with the need for Anorthosis (the draw does not serve him), so he will not play retracted, leaving spaces behind.
 
 The far superior thing is because Partizan is the current leader of the Serbian league after 19 games (17W 2E) while Anorthosis is eighth (out of 12 teams) in the weak Cyprus league after 11 games (6 defeats) .
 
 We can also see it in the other group matches. It was one of the most lopsided groups with 2 good teams (Gant and Partizan) and 2 quite weak teams (Flora and Anorthosis). Proof of this is that Anorthosis comes to this day with 5 points, after 2 draws against Flora and a surprising victory against Gant on the last day. Match in which they have finished 2 times and one has been the winning goal. For the rest, clear dominance of a Belgian team that was already classified with 10 points and that had made several rotations.
 In the Gant / Anorthosis on matchday two, the Belgian team won in a very dominated match from the start 2-0.
 
 In the first round match (corresponding to matchday one), we witnessed a comfortable victory for Partizan by 2 goals to 0 in Cyprus. I think that in Belgrade, Partizan will finish sealing their pass to the round of 32 with an even calmer victory.
 
 Very interesting this @ 1.8 that Betfred offers us when several houses pay the -1.0 of the Partizan environment @ 1.6, even less in some than another.
 
 Good luck!
...

15
International - Europa League Grp. F date: 09/12/2021  hour: 21:00
00
Ludogorets Razgrad FC Midtjylland
LOST
Tip FC Midtjylland wins
Odds Stake 7/10 2.5
LOST
 Reasoning ...

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Europa League match between Ludogorets and Midtjylland.
 We need the victory of the Danish team for the green.
 
 With the last day remaining, Midtjylland are third in their group with 8 points behind Red Star (10 points) and Braga (9 points).
 The current leader of the Danish league is not worth a draw to continue in the competition, since he has lost the private goal against Braga.
 A victory would classify him as second ... or even as first if Estrella Roja and Braga tie (particular goal in favor against Estrella Roja).
 In short, it is a match in which only Midtjylland wins.
 
 They face Ludogorets, bottom of the group with only 1 point in 5 rounds thanks to the draw achieved precisely against Midtjylland on the first round. In a match totally dominated by the Danes: 59% / 41%, 17 shots (4 on goal) to 3 (1 on goal that was a goal), 13 corners on 2, ...
 It should be noted that Ludogorets did not they have won any of their last 17 UEL games. What's more, they have lost 14 of the 17 games and have drawn in the 3 others.
 Ludogorets does not play almost anything (they have no option of reaching the third place that gives access to the Conference) but I do not rule out that they propose a difficult match in their stadium. It is a team that tends to give a better image when it plays at home.
 Despite this, I believe that Midtjylland will be able to demonstrate their superiority in such a transcendent match.
 
 Good luck!
...

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