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We are already entering the last week of the men's season and the penultimate of the women's season.
In this first round of the Rio de Janeiro challenger, two locals will face each other that, right now, are going in totally opposite directions: the 23-year-old Olivieri vs a Guillherme Clezar still in the process of post-injury adaptation to the challenger circuit.
To begin I want to emphasize that it is a 1.5 stake; It is not a stake 2. Although it is true that I see value at the even odds for this handicap, I do not have a magic ball to know which version Olivieri will come out with. What I am looking forward to is his version of these last 3 weeks in which he has shown a leap in the aspect of brutal patience. He already had Francisco Cerundolo on the ropes in Brasilia and, this week before in Florianopolis, he made more than serious games against the thrashing Alves, Pucinelli De Almeida, Nicolás Barrientos and Hugo Dellien.
Be careful because I am perfectly aware that last week's rivals are by no means top players on the challenger clay circuit, with the exception of Dellien. However, and the reason for the pick, the reality is that Guilherme Clezar, as he has said in the only interview he has granted so far - unless he has found -, this season finale for him is the prologue of the 2022 season.
Guilherme, to begin with, had a complicated 2020 season with only 12 participations, his best results being the quarterfinals in Punta del Este and Lisbon, and his semis in Morelos. He already warned in his last games of that season that he did not feel at all well physically or mechanically with respect to his ankles.
Entered this season, until March he played 5 games that resulted in 4 defeats (Barrios Vera, Olivo, Cerundulo mayor and Meligeni) and 1 victory (Casanova). Faced with still pain, he decided to rest, and finally underwent two operations in May.
Clezar is a tennis freak. One of the few who, both from what is shown on the tracks and in interviews and social networks, is seen to be enjoying himself like a real child - and he has been demonstrating this during his recovery. This second half of the year he has developed more in the work environment outside the world of tennis, signing for Safra Invest as an investor advisor, but he has also dedicated himself body and soul to his recovery playing local tournaments of Brazilian sports clubs (or ITF tournaments or Challenger tournaments). Doubles player Fabricio Neis has helped him through the process by being his doubles partner in the tournaments they have played so far.
However, last week in Florianopolis I did not see him yet ready to hit the table on his return to the circuit. A very failing Nikles, and whose version seemed quite inferior to what Olivieri has shown these weeks, he beat him 6-3, 6-7 and 6-2 (he fulfills the handicap by winning 6 games). What Guilherme has achieved so far in his recovery process has merit, but I think Olivieri is great for him if he plays like last week. Even so, and out of prudence in case it were the result of three good isolated weeks, I lower the stake to 1.5 (make no mistake; a stake 1.5 for me is already high enough given that I have never exceeded a stake 2, 5).
So, let's hope that Olivieri wins in two straight sets showing the solidity with which he has played in Florianópolis.
I'm going to see if I can publish 3 more picks in which I've seen interesting things.
Greetings guys. Luck.
